Nepal’s new political equation has started creating ripples not only inside the country but also in international diplomacy. While India has openly congratulated the emerging leadership of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), China has remained noticeably silent regarding the formation of a possible government led by Balen Shah.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally called Rabi Lamichhane and Balen Shah to congratulate them on their electoral success. Modi praised the remarkable victory of the Rastriya Swatantra Party in Nepal’s election and extended his best wishes for the formation of the new government.
During the conversation, Modi also expressed India’s commitment to working closely with the upcoming government to strengthen mutual prosperity, progress, and cooperation between Nepal and India.
However, Nepal’s other powerful neighbor, China, has not yet issued any formal statement regarding the potential formation of a government under Balen Shah’s leadership. This silence has drawn attention among political observers and analysts.
According to political analysts, China has historically appeared more comfortable when communist parties hold power in Nepal. But in this election, the unexpected defeat of former Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli and the rise of a new political force has created a different political landscape.
Before the elections, there were indications that Beijing expected a strong performance from communist forces. Around that time, Nepal’s Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal held a courtesy meeting with the Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Chen Song, at the Ministry of Home Affairs in Singha Durbar.
During the meeting, the Chinese ambassador congratulated the government for successfully conducting the elections on time and reiterated that China is always ready to cooperate with Nepal. The Home Minister, in return, stated that Nepal expects China’s support in areas such as peace, development, and crime control.
Now, the political context has changed. While India has shown quick diplomatic engagement, China’s continued silence regarding the emerging government has become a subject of growing interest.
Analysts say Nepal, geographically located between two major powers—India and China, always faces a delicate diplomatic balance. In such a situation, the response of both neighbors toward Nepal’s new government could shape the future direction of Nepal’s foreign policy.
Meanwhile, Balen Shah has repeatedly emphasized that Nepal–India relations should become even stronger in the coming years.
This raises an important question:
Why has China remained silent while India has openly welcomed the new political leadership in Nepal?
Whether this silence is merely diplomatic caution or a sign of strategic discomfort with Nepal’s new political reality remains to be seen.
